Concise CV (in english).
Presidente da Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Inc. (MSSANZ) desde sua criação, a qual vem promovendo uma das maiores conferências internacionais na área de modelagem e simulação – 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2013). É o editor chefe de um dos jornais mais importantes da área de modelagem ambiental editado pela Elsevier – Environmental Modelling & Software (ISSN 1364-8152) com Fator de Impacto 3.476 em 2013. Na Universidade Nacional da Australia é líder do centro de pesquisa iCAM (Integrated Catchment Assessment and Management Centre). Tem experiência em desenvolvimento de modelos conceituais para simulação de recursos naturais. Suas principais áreas de pesquisa incluem análise de impacto integrada com avaliação de aspectos socio-econômicos, tecnológicos e políticos envolvidos nas alterações ambientais relacionados as mudanças climáticas e a gestão de recursos hídricos.
Integrated Modelling and Decision Support: making progress for addressing wicked environmental issues
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Modelling and simulation are becoming increasingly important for addressing today’s environmental problems. Many of these, such as assessing the impacts of climate change and the sustainability of groundwater systems, are messy or wicked problems. These are defined by there being multiple stakeholders and decision makers with competing and conflicting goals, and where the systems of interest are complex – being social, economic, and ecological – and are subject to a range of uncertainties caused by limited data, information and knowledge. Modellers can nevertheless play a key role in resolving and providing support for clarifying decision options for managing environmental issues. Indeed the more messy the problem the greater need for a proper process of ‘integrated assessment.’ In this process modellers undertake integration in several ways. They can help to frame the right problem, identify and include the key stakeholders, map out the system interactions, select the appropriate modelling paradigm(s) for analyzing consequences of policy changes and other influences, manage uncertainties and communicate them. This talk will illustrate the effectiveness of integrated assessment and decision support using our experiences in the water resources sector, provide some guidance on the process and lay out some of the challenges ahead.
Rafael Loyola obtained his Ph.D at the State University of Campinas (2009). Currently, he is Associate Professor of Ecology & Evolution at the Department of Ecology, Federal University of Goiás, Brazil. Rafael is the recipient of the Brazilian Best Ph.D Thesis Award (2009), and serves in the Board of Editors of Diversity and Distributions, Conservation Letters, PLoS ONE, Biological Conservation, and BMC Ecology. He’s also the Editor-in-Chief of Natureza & Conservação (The Brazilian Journal of Nature Conservation).
What does the future hold for Atlantic Forest protected areas?
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Only 7 % of the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot is currently protected. How effective would the Atlantic Forest network of protected areas (PAs) be in a changing climate? Are there some particular features of PAs that drive species loss or gain inside them? In this talk I will address these questions by showing models of ecological niches of 430 amphibian species in the Atlantic Forest with distributions projected into three future climate change simulations. Most species will have a significant range contraction (up to 72%) and 12% of species are projected to be regionally extinct. Most species would need to disperse because suitable climatic sites will change. Further, I will show that the number of species should decline within Atlantic Forest network of PAs under changing climate conditions, and that only altitude was a good predictor of species gains or lost inside PAs. Finally, I will discuss a proposal for a complementary network of priority sites for conservation that minimizes the distance a given species would need to disperse because of changes in future habitat suitability (i.e. climate-forced dispersal) as well as uncertainties associated to the modeling process. This network also maximized complementary species representation across currently established protected areas, and priority sites already include possible dispersal corridors linking current and future suitable habitats for amphibians.